The Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO) has recently published the official statistics for the AHV (Old-Age and Survivors’ Insurance) and the IV (Disability Insurance) for 2025. Behind the figures lie clear trends that warrant careful reflection: our social security system is evidently under pressure due to various factors, and the situation could become even more complex in the future.
With a challenging outlook ahead, the question we should all be asking ourselves today is: will state social insurance be enough to guarantee my standard of living or that of my family in the event of the unexpected?
Here is a summary of what the numbers indicate and the reflections they impose.
1. AHV: positive accounts, but reserves are falling fast
In 2025, the AHV achieved a positive result, earning more than it spent: revenues stood at approximately CHF 55 billion, compared to expenditures of around CHF 53 billion. However, a comparison with the previous year shows that the financial situation is deteriorating quite rapidly. Expenses are continually rising against stable revenues, and reserves are decreasing much faster than in the past.
The medium-term outlook has prompted the Federal Council to issue a further warning: with the introduction of the 13th AHV pension, the structural deficit risks climbing to CHF 4.2 billion by 2035.
How is the AHV funded?
- Around 71% comes from salary contributions from employees and employers.
- Just under 20% comes from the Confederation’s financial contribution.
- 9% comes from the VAT increase introduced in 2020 in favor of the AHV.
On the expenditure side, a striking 99% is allocated directly to cash benefits, meaning the actual payment of pensions.
2. One in three pensions goes abroad: the real data
One-third of pensions are paid abroad, but with significantly lower amounts compared to those distributed in Switzerland. Specifically, out of approximately 3 million total pensions paid, 1 million goes to individuals residing abroad.
This disparity is clearly reflected in the average monthly figures:
- Pensions paid in Switzerland average around CHF 2,000.
- Pensions paid abroad average around CHF 600.
The reason for this difference is that residents abroad are typically individuals who worked in the Confederation for only a few years, thereby qualifying for a partial pension only. 85% of these foreign pensions go to countries bordering Switzerland.
The collected data also debunk an old myth, proving that foreign nationals contribute more than they receive: foreign citizens paid around 35% of all AHV contributions but received only 18% of the benefits. In short: the foreign population is vital to the financing of the AHV, not the other way around.
3. Married couples and women: the “capping” penalty
If both spouses receive an AHV pension, their combined amount is limited to a maximum of 150% of the maximum individual pension, resulting in a ceiling (known as capping) of CHF 3,780 per month. This is a highly penalizing dynamic, as married couples receive significantly less than two unmarried individuals cohabiting.
The data are telling: nearly 90% of pensions paid to married couples are capped, and of these, only about half manage to reach the maximum amount of CHF 3,780. This topic is currently at the center of a major political debate, driven by a popular initiative proposing the abolition of the pension ceiling for married couples.
In this context, women receive much less, especially if married. The reason lies in employment history: women generally have lower incomes subject to AHV contributions because they frequently work part-time or experience career interruptions to care for children.
4. Disability Insurance (IV): the surge in mental illness
The number of new pensions from the Disability Insurance (IV) is rising faster than at any time in the last 15 years, so much so that the IV closed the year 2025 with a negative operating result. The trend is clearly upward: in 2025, IV offices received a staggering 70,000 new applications, compared to around 50,000 in 2014.
The most significant and worrying insight from the entire statistic is the cause of these pensions:
- Almost half of all new IV pensions are granted due to a mental illness.
- When looking specifically at all IV pensions granted due to illness, the proportion caused by mental disorders reaches a striking 64%.
- Conversely, physical illnesses—historically the main driver of IV benefits—are decreasing significantly.
This increase closely affects younger age groups. To address this, the Federal Council is adopting new guidelines for an IV “integration reform,” aimed at providing targeted support to young people suffering from illnesses. Indeed, anyone receiving an IV pension at a young age will potentially receive it for decades, carrying a massive economic impact for both the system and the individual’s life.
How to protect yourself: pension analysis and a tailored Third Pillar
In light of this data, it is evident how important it is to carry out a serious and thorough pension analysis to identify any gaps in a timely manner. The analysis must be followed by a strategy to build a “tailor-made” insurance plan, capable of preventing severe financial hardship in the event of an unexpected occurrence (such as illness or accident) or upon retirement.
The only certainty is that assessments almost always reveal gaps that need to be filled. The situation becomes even more delicate when dealing with:
- A family with children
- Single-income households
- The presence of significant mortgage debts
Individual providence (the “third pillar”) can therefore no longer be considered an optional luxury, as state social insurance alone is no longer sufficient to guarantee an adequate standard of living when needed. Furthermore, the third pillar offers major tax benefits that would be a pity to miss out on.
Since these topics can be highly complex and intimidating, professional advice is essential to tackle them with clarity and confidence.
Contact us for a personalized consultation.
